TSLA
3 MonthsAuto margins are the story, and the story is compressing
Start price
$309.00
Current
$309.00
Target
$220.00
How it's going
0.00%Another View
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Where members stand — not who's right. The market decides that.
The Call
Autonomy optionality is real but unpriceable today. Meanwhile core auto gross margin is under pressure from price cuts and competition. You're paying a software multiple for a hardware margin trend.
What people are saying
Price cuts are hitting margin.
Auto gross margin ex-credits has trended down as ASPs fall faster than cost.
Global EV competition intensified.
Chinese OEMs are undercutting on price with competitive range and features.
SourceAutonomy timeline keeps slipping.
Full autonomy guidance has repeatedly moved right; optionality shouldn't anchor the valuation.
Biggest risk
A credible, regulator-approved robotaxi launch that re-rates the entire narrative.
What would prove me wrong
Auto gross margin (ex-credits) expands for two straight quarters, or a robotaxi service goes live at scale in a major US metro.
The other side, from AI
The bull would argue the downside is priced and a single beat re-rates the name. Consider what invalidates your short.
AI-generated. Not verified fact and not financial advice.
How it's playing out
Real daily closes since the moment this Call was recorded, shown as the move in the direction called. Target: $220.00.
Bulls and Bears on TSLA
2 Bull Calls · 0 Bear Calls from other members.
Edit history
No edits since posting. Original call intact.
What people think
Real reactions, not just likes.
Tesla Inc.
My Call
Auto margins are the story, and the story is compressing
Start
$309.00
Target
$220.00
Confidence
61%
Biggest risk
A credible, regulator-approved robotaxi launch that re-rates the entire narrative.
Ravi Nair
@ravibuilds · Jul 4, 2026 · 1:30 PM
Opinion and context, not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. What’s Your Call? does not execute trades or recommend securities.
Disclosures
- • Holds a short position
- • May trade this asset
Not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. What’s Your Call? does not execute trades. Market data may be delayed.