Latest Calls
Bulls on one side, Bears on the other. Newest first.
AI capex is running ahead of AI revenue
Learning-in-public bear note: I love the company but the capex-to-monetization gap could pressure free cash flow and the multiple near term.
Extraordinary company, impossible valuation
I'd own it 40% lower. At today's multiple you're underwriting near-flawless execution for years. Any deceleration or SBC scrutiny and the air comes out fast.
Energy + autonomy is the mispriced second act
Everyone models Tesla as an automaker. The energy storage business is compounding fast and barely in estimates, and even a partial autonomy win is asymmetric to the upside.
A hardware-cycle stock priced like a software one
China share loss is real, the AI feature set has underwhelmed, and the multiple has expanded on buybacks rather than growth. Good company, demanding price.
Auto margins are the story, and the story is compressing
Autonomy optionality is real but unpriceable today. Meanwhile core auto gross margin is under pressure from price cuts and competition. You're paying a software multiple for a hardware margin trend.
Search economics face their first real threat
Generative answers change the query funnel and the click economics that fund everything. Cloud is great; the core is the risk.
Priced for perfection into a digestion year
I'm not calling the business bad — I'm calling the valuation. At this multiple, any capex air-pocket or margin normalization is a 25% drawdown. Concentration risk in a handful of buyers is underappreciated.
Ad engine funds the moonshots, and the ads still work
Core advertising re-accelerated on AI-driven targeting and Reels monetization. Reality Labs is a controlled bet, not a bleed. The market keeps under-modeling operating leverage.
AIP is turning a services company into a platform
The bootcamp-to-production motion is real and the net dollar retention proves it. Commercial US is the inflection. Valuation is rich, but the growth durability is being underestimated.
The compute buildout is a decade, not a cycle
Hyperscaler capex guidance keeps ratcheting up, and NVDA still owns the full stack — silicon, networking, and CUDA. The market is pricing a cyclical top; I think we're mid-buildout.
Services is the quiet compounder the tape ignores
Hardware is mature — fine. Services is a high-margin, recurring, still-growing annuity attached to 2B+ active devices. The install base is the moat; monetization is the runway.
The most durable way to own the AI buildout
Azure + Copilot + the enterprise install base is a monetization machine. Less binary than a pure-play chip name, with a fortress balance sheet and a growing dividend.
AWS re-acceleration + retail margin inflection
Cloud growth troughed and retail operating margin is structurally higher post-logistics rebuild.
Own the innovation index, size it sensibly
Concentration is the criticism and the feature. Dollar-cost into the Nasdaq-100 and let the winners compound.
Delivery beat sets up a re-rate
Expected a delivery beat to drive a short squeeze into earnings.
Vision + services carry the next leg
Bet on services acceleration and a modest hardware refresh into the holiday cycle.
Breadth divergence flags a pullback
Narrow leadership and stretched sentiment into a seasonally weak window.
Ad tier + password crackdown = margin story
Monetizing shared accounts and scaling the ad tier drives operating leverage.
Best-in-class bank, higher-for-longer tailwind
Net interest income strength plus buybacks in a resilient credit environment.
The Calls above are labelled examples. Real members' Calls appear here the moment they're recorded.